I found these charts from Jeff B on Active Rain, I thought they were pretty good, I have some earlier posts about the Shadow Inventory that is coming down the pipe. I think that these charts support some of those comments, posts, and tweets about the Pent-up inventory that has been talked about the past couple of weeks. I don't think we need to panic, we just need to adjust the way we do business.
The notice of defaults recorded this week are at the third highest (at 139) level since I started tracking them back in the first part of June. I assumed that it would be high just because of the passed trends. Its seems like we get them in spurts, and then they go way down. The Notice of Sales reported this week (108) is at the highest level since June 28th. I am guessing from what I have seen so far is that we will have a continued upward trend in the Notice of sales, compared to the last three months. Some of the banks are starting to process some of the pent-up inventory that has been sitting there for the past year. I was reading the WSJ, and some of the numbers of the current loans that are in default that haven't been processed yet for the foreclosure proceedings were at very high levels. I said this in an earlier post that there was 1.2 million of those loans that haven't even started in the distressed pipeline, because of the banks are waiting to see if they can qualify them for Loan Mods, or other bank "workout programs" that are available. Soon as they become disqualified they move them into the foreclosure process. To qualify for some of those programs, you need to fit a certain criteria, and the banks are coming to realize that most of the people can't even make the first cut.
The filings from Ada County are out for the week, and the Notice of defaults are down to the 2nd lowest amount in the last 3 months. The Notice of Sales are also down too. From what I can tell in the short run, we are trending downward, but it doesn't take much to make it go back up. Now that I have over three months data collected from the NOD's and NOS's I think we can conclude that the filings are pretty sporatic, but the data is talking. We just need to dive further into it. I think it goes in phases, we have a real high week and then it goes down down down, then we have another high week, and then it goes down down down.. then it happens again. The problem that I see is the high weeks keep getting higher. I can't really put a lot into this theory yet until have a couple of months more data. My prediction is that in the next week or two the NOD's will be ski high again, and then we will start over again. So stay tuned, and tell me what you think, please leave your comments below.
Jeremy Erickson
Over the past couple of years that I have sent out market reports, I have never been serious about resale data. I have looked at it and studied it, but I was so focused in New Construction over the past 6 years that I didn't give it much thought. I have had a paradigm shift, like many others have had in this challenging market. I want to see the big picture on this Real Estate market, and the only way that I felt I could do that is really dive into all the sales and listing data on both sides of the spectrum for residential real estate. I have been collecting and sorting (resale) data over the past couple of months to see what would be useful to share with others that are trying to understand the market. I have created a new Resale Market Report for Ada County. I think it has opened my eyes to what is really happening out there in the market place. Enough talk, here is the link to the video that I created. And I am going to give you a link to download the report in pdf format. Just click here, and you will be directed to a page so you can download it. Make sure you look a the bottom of page to see the attachment to click on. Have a great Week!
Enjoy the video, and it you want to subscribe to the Monthly report in Spread sheet format with all the data that I pull from Multiple listing service, just click on this link to subscribe. If you have any questions about the movie, just leave a comment, or email me at jeremy@adacountymarketreport.com
Check out the photos below
Jeremy e
AdaCounyMarketReport.com
Sales are down, but historicaly they always peak in June, and things begin to taper off in July due to the vacations, and other factors. I have pulled the market data for Ada County New Construction for July 2009. The overall total sales are down from last month (137 down to 125 for this month), and the month previous. The inventory is down to 844, from 864 (30 days ago). Take a look at the report, and let me know what you think. When you are viewing the online spreadsheet, remember there are tabs (Sheets) on the bottom, you will be able to toggle through the different sheets. I have sorted the sales in 3-4 different ways. I also created some Top Community, Top Builder, and Top Area sheets too. I will have the Video finished pretty soon, and as soon as I have it, I will send it out to everyone (if you are subscribed if not click here). Just click on the link below to see the report online. I will also attach the file to this post, you will be able to download it from Scribd in the iPaper format (above). Let me know if you have any comments, or questions. Here is that link! http://www.jrerickson.com/ACMR/Market_Report_Subscription.html
Thanks
Jeremy E
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